Progressive Conservative Members of Parliament have represented Brandon-Souris for 35 years of my 40-year life. And during that time, other than the Brian Mulroney years, and 9 months of Joe Clark, we have had Liberal governments. Today we enjoy(?) a minority government that shows little chance of moving towards a majority. We're enmeshed in the midst of scandal after scandal, the failures of free trade, and a softwood lumber issue that shows few signs of resolution...and yet the Opposition Conservatives are falling in popularity.
Paul Martin's Liberals show every characteristic of a government that has been in power too long – scandals, arrogance and careening from crisis to crisis. Canadians are clearly tired of the same old faces and yet it appears as though they believe there is no option.
According to a recent Leger poll, 40% of Canadians would vote for the Liberal Party while only 24% would support the Conservatives. Over the course of this summer, Conservative support has dropped significantly. At the same time, 53% of Canadians are dissatisfied with Prime Minister Martin's leadership. This is a telling set of statistics – clearly we're not thrilled about our current leadership, but we're even less thrilled about the possible replacements.
The Reform/Alliance/Conservative Party appears to swing from extremes when picking their leaders. Preston Manning, with a reedy voice and unappealing personal style, was also known for his integrity and intelligence. But since he lacked charisma and couldn't take his party to the next level, he was replaced by Stockwell Day.
Day, by comparison, was young and telegenic. If the strategy was to underscore the age difference between Jean Chretien and the Reform/Alliance leader, then Stockwell Day was the right choice. Unfortunately for Day, he showed very quickly that he was in over his head, regardless of the flotation gear he used on his famous wave runner excursions.
Stockwell Day was clearly a triumph of style over substance.
The current leader, Stephen Harper, appears to be the result of a calculated decision to seek substance over style. There is no doubt he lacks charisma, telegenic good looks, or even a sense of style, cowboy outfit notwithstanding. But he was the smart guy, right? He was the answer to Stockwell Day's thickness.
It appears as though Canadians, particularly those who live east of the Manitoba border, don't find Harper an attractive choice for Prime Minister. According to the same Leger poll, while 26% of Canadians have a positive opinion of Stephen Harper, fully 35% have a bad opinion. This must be particularly disconcerting for Conservatives at a time in which the Opposition parties should be rallying.
The old axiom is that perception is reality. The perception of Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is that he is an extremist. It may or may not be the truth – who knows what lies in a person's heart? But based on opinion polls, Canadians certainly believe it to be true. Therein lies the problem for federal Conservatives.
Since the collapse of the old Progressive Conservative Party in 1992, there really hasn't been another party that was competitive in all regions of Canada. While the Liberals have done a good job convincing voters of the extremism of the right, the right has done a pretty good job of convincing voters of their extremism, too.
I have long believed there are two types of conservatives in Canada – those "social" conservatives in the West who focus on issues like family values and those "business" conservatives in the East who focus on smaller government and reducing taxes. While there are some who straddle the two sides, there truly is a chasm that divides the Conservative Party. Hence, the Western popularity of a socially conservative leader like Stockwell Day is completely counter-productive in the East, and vice versa.
Like the NDP, the Conservative Party is quickly marginalizing itself in the eyes of moderate Canadians.
It is important to understand that cities historically are more socially permissive than rural areas. As more immigration occurs, and internal migration flows show Canadians moving to urban areas from rural Canada, the "social" versus "business" chasm of the Conservatives will be highlighted. Other than the Western outposts of Regina, Calgary, Saskatoon and Edmonton, one would be hard-pressed to find cities that support the Conservatives en mass.
The future of the Tories, like it or not, is to find a business-friendly bilingual candidate who hails from Montreal or southern Ontario. He, and it will be a male until Canadians show they are ready to support a female Prime Minister, must have sufficient power in the party to control the extremist wings and to fund-raise in central Canada. Sounds like Brian Mulroney, huh?
Think about it this way. The party Mulroney cobbled together, and led to two majority governments, is now the basis of both the Bloc Quebecois and the former Alliance Parties. Somehow Mulroney was able to capture the imagination of so many disparate interests. Regardless of one's opinion of Mulroney, and putting aside opinions about his government, he clearly must be considered one of the greatest political operatives of our time.
Stephen Harper, according to my sources, has done everything he can to get out from under Mulroney's long shadow. In practical terms however, Mulroney's skills are desperately needed by a party seemingly incapable of taking advantage of all the political soft balls lobbed to them.
The future of the Conservative Party is not Stephen Harper. Despite his efforts, he will never be able to convince ordinary Canadians of his moderate views. End of discussion. However, from a practical perspective, he is the leader and there simply isn't enough time to remove him, hold a convention and prepare properly for the next election. Quite frankly, the Conservatives will be forced to live or die with Harper in the coming election.